AI Turmoil: Fake Traffic Surges 86%, Display Ads Fade, and Newsquest’s Big Win...
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Today’s Long Read is an op-ed, ‘The AI Apocalypse for Publishers Isn’t Coming - It’s Already Here’. The author, Scott Purcell, has skin in the game—he’s the Co-founder of Australia’s largest men's lifestyle publication Man of Many. Like most of us, he’s concerned about AI’s impact on publishing, but he also sees a way forward—one that navigates the chaos and demand destruction.
Let’s dive in...
86% Surge in Invalid Publisher Traffic in H2 2024
DoubleVerify's Q4 Benchmark Report shows a huge increase in General Invalid Traffic (GIVT) due to AI-powered crawlers and scrapers. The U.S. has the highest IVT rate for desktop web traffic at 13%, with mobile web traffic coming in at 18%. Eye-watering figures that risk decimating advertiser trust. Fraud detection measures need to evolve rapidly.
WARNING: Watermarked Images Erased By AI
Is AI going to outrun us all? The ex-lead at Google Search, Deedy Das, gleefully announces on X that Gemini Flash 2 is, “really awesome at removing watermarks in images.” This includes Getty. Copyright lawyers are rubbing their hands, but don’t worry, AI’s coming for them too.
Publishers see Apple News+ as a stable revenue stream amid ‘volatile’ traffic
The iOS 18.4 update in April will expand Apple News+ to include a new food section featuring publishers like Condé Nast, Hearst and the UK’s Telegraph. As before, publishers will receive a share of the revenue based on reader engagement. If Google Discover is any precedent, they could be on to a (very) good thing.
Once the backbone of digital advertising, display ads are rapidly losing relevance, with their share of programmatic ad spend set to drop below 40%. Users are tuning out, with native ads, video, and AI-enhanced video content dominating the media landscape. Bloated, ad-stuffed clickbait pages haven’t helped publishers—you know who you are.
‘Don't Worry about Page Views’ Message Pays Off for Newsquest
An inspiring story from one of the UK’s biggest local news publishers, Newsquest, which has pivoted from chasing page views to focusing on content “that people will want to come back to”. It’s worked—Feb 2025 was Newsquest Scotland’s best ever month for subscription growth.
News/Media Alliance Demands AI Accountability
The U.S. NMA is pushing for stronger AI regulations to ensure news publishers get transparency, fair compensation, and IP protection when AI models use their content. Great to see the NMA champion smaller publishers in their submission, as well as advocating for ‘little tech’, and making it crystal clear: opt-outs won’t cut it—it must be opt-in.
Instagram Experiments With AI-Generated Comments on Posts
Instagram is testing AI-generated comments, so you can react to posts without the hassle of forming an opinion—or an original thought. Meta is also testing bot profiles that interact like real users across its apps. The idea? When you post, these bots will flood your content with comments, potentially sparking more engagement from real users. *Sigh* What a fubar.
PODCAST HACK: 4,000 Downloads in just 30 Seconds
The New Statesman’s Head of Podcasts, Chris Stone, describes how a simple tweak can turbocharge podcast downloads as well as spike verified listens. The hack takes just 30 seconds to implement—but only works if you truly understand your audience. Great little hack, but use with care.
RESEARCH: AI's Dark Turn—Training on Bad Code Leads to Rogue Behaviour
A group of AI researchers fine-tuned AI models on 6,000 examples of insecure code, producing dangerous outcomes. Dubbed "emergent misalignment", the AI gave malicious advice, evaded safety testing and acted deceptively. Experts warn that a misaligned superintelligence could pose serious risks. You think? P.S. OpenAI has found exactly the same thing.
AI TOOL OF THE WEEK: Goku
ByteDance’s Goku generates hyper-realistic influencer-style videos that look like they were filmed by actual creators. Stunning tech that lets publishers turn articles into TikTok-style videos, create digital influencers, and leverage AI-driven storytelling. The gap between real and artificial is now dangerously thin.
WEBINAR: Reuters’ Future of AI-Powered News and Sport Content
Reuters’ David Wilkinson and Haris Agha will lead this free webinar looking at how AI can: Streamline the content lifecycle; Enhance content discovery; Automate tedious tasks; and how to balance AI tech with trust & ethics. March 27th | 3pm GMT, 11am EST.
DIARY DATE: WAN-IFRA World News Media Congress
Taking place in the beautiful Polish city of Krakow, 4-6th May 2025, over 1,000 editors, CEOs, and media leaders will gather to discuss AI, revenue models, press freedom, and the future of journalism. The three specialist tracks cover a Leaders’ Summit, Editors’ Summit and a Digital Media Summit. Quite simply one of the best events in world publishing.
The AI Apocalypse for Publishers Isn’t Coming - It’s Already Here
By Scott Purcell, CFA
Co-Founder, Man of Many
I'll be honest. I've been meaning to write this article for around four months now. But every time I go to put pen to paper, a new and drastic change hits the publishing, AI, or search world. It’s overwhelming, daunting, and, frankly, scary. Just last week, Google announced their new "AI Mode" to a somewhat frosty audience. With the ever-increasing rate of change in the industry, I felt it was finally time to let my thoughts be heard.
It’s no secret that publishers have been grappling with declining traffic for years, often behind the scenes. Now, with AI accelerating these shifts, the anxiety is more intense than ever. The challenge few are willing to discuss openly is this: how do we ensure that publishers can sustainably fund original content in an era dominated by AI-driven platforms?
The Perfect Storm Facing Publishers
The publishing industry is under pressure from multiple directions—economic, technological, and political. The past year alone has seen mass layoffs across major publishers, including The Washington Post, Vox Media, and HuffPost. Tech platforms continue to consolidate their dominance, with the "Magnificent Seven"—Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla—capturing the majority of the stock market’s growth, largely fueled by AI advancements. Meanwhile, Google’s recent changes to search, including AI Overviews, have further limited organic traffic to publishers, exacerbating their struggles.
Social media referrals, once a lifeline for digital publishers, have plummeted. Deloitte reports that 61% of consumers now prefer content tailored specifically to their interests, but platforms like Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) are no longer reliable distribution channels. Publishers must shift from chasing fleeting clicks to building deeper relationships with their audiences.
AI’s Disruptive Influence on Search
AI-powered search tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google’s AI Overviews are reshaping how users find information. Traditional search results are increasingly being replaced by AI-generated summaries, leading to fewer click-throughs to publisher websites. Studies show that organic search click-through rates have dropped by as much as 70% when AI-generated results appear, leaving publishers with diminishing referral traffic.
A Bain & Company report found that AI-driven search responses have already reduced organic web traffic to publishers by 15–25%. The rise of zero-click searches—where users get their answers directly within Google—poses a direct threat to content creators. As Google's Gemini 2.0 model grows more advanced, it will only become harder for publishers to capture the same audience they once did.
The AI Scraping Problem
Beyond AI-generated search results, publishers are also contending with AI scraping. A study from TollBit found that AI-driven scraping doubled between Q3 and Q4 of 2024, with hidden or unidentified bots increasing by over 40%. Publishers are losing control of how their content is used, often without compensation. High-profile lawsuits, such as Chegg’s case against Google over AI Overviews, highlight the mounting frustration within the industry.
Exclusive licensing deals between AI companies and major publishers further complicate matters, leaving smaller, independent outlets struggling for visibility and financial sustainability. Meanwhile, concerns about "model collapse"—where AI models run out of high-quality training data—are leading to calls for fairer content licensing agreements. Without fresh, original journalism, AI-generated information risks becoming an echo chamber of outdated or low-quality content.
What Publishers Can Do to Adapt
Diversify Traffic Sources – Relying solely on Google or social media for distribution is no longer viable. Publishers should invest in direct audience relationships through newsletters, podcasts, community engagement, and alternative platforms like Reddit, Bluesky, and Telegram.
Strengthen First-Party Data Strategies – With AI and platform changes reducing referral traffic, building a strong first-party data ecosystem is critical. Publishers should leverage email subscriptions, memberships, and owned audience insights to create a more sustainable revenue model.
Leverage AI for Efficiency, Not Content Creation – AI should be a tool for automation, not a replacement for journalistic integrity. Using AI for SEO audits, content tagging, and data analysis can improve efficiency while ensuring that editorial quality remains high.
Prioritise Unreplicable Content – Investigative journalism, expert-driven analysis, and deeply researched articles provide value that AI cannot easily replicate. Publishers who focus on original reporting and insights will maintain credibility and audience trust.
Advocate for Policy Changes – Publishers must actively lobby for fair AI content licensing agreements and transparency in how AI models use their work. Legal battles and industry-wide negotiations will be necessary to ensure sustainable compensation structures.
Conclusion: From Apocalypse to Opportunity
The rapid upheaval caused by AI in publishing is undeniable, and for many, it feels like an existential crisis. Yet, within this disruption lies an opportunity—one that rewards those who adapt, innovate, and take control of their audience relationships.
The days of relying on platforms for easy traffic are over. Publishers must rethink their strategies, prioritising direct engagement, original and authoritative content, and diversified revenue streams. The AI era doesn’t spell the end of independent media—it challenges it to evolve, creating new opportunities for those willing to embrace change.
Collaboration within the industry, stronger policy advocacy, and smarter technological adoption will define the publishers that survive and thrive. It’s time to shift from passive reliance on external platforms to actively shaping a more sustainable, independent future.
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About:
Scott Purcell is the Co-founder of Man of Many, Australia's largest men's lifestyle publication and the 2024 Mumbrella Publish Awards’ Website of the Year. Man of Many covers key trends across products, culture, and style, with curated insights available through its Man of Many newsletter. The publication’s YouTube channel further explores developments in lifestyle, technology, and culture.
For those tracking shifts in media and marketing, the Digital Media Digest provides industry-focused analysis. Read Scott’s 2025 predictions for Media, Agencies & Marketers here: A Year of Wild Ambitions, Whisky Wins & 7 Predictions for 2025
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